- [Presenter] During the Second Industrial Revolution
in Britain, it was common people to be woken up
by a person tapping their bedroom windows.
This real profession, called a Knocker-upper,
was essential to ensure, that in a time before alarm clocks,
workers would get up on time
and head to their jobs at the factories.
In addition, many knocker-uppers used a snuffer-outer
as a tool to extinguish gas lamps in the morning
that had been burning all night.
As reliable alarm clocks became available
and electricity was deployed in more and more neighborhoods,
the job of the knocker-upper was in jeopardy.
Eventually the technology had reached enough people
that the necessity for the job was eliminated.
An entire industry vanished.
We can all likely think of many jobs
made unnecessary and industries that have
vanished as a result of innovation.
Equally, we can think of new industries,
services and products that continue
to emerge every year as a result of new technologies.
When considering the impact, scope and velocity
of change in the Fourth Industrial Revolution,
what types of industries may be most at risk,
and what new kinds of industries might be born?
We'll start with industries at risk.
Any industry and any organization that
underestimates both the extent of disruption
and the speed in which that disruption
may occur, should be flagged as a risk.
Now if an organization can digitize its product or service,
it must seriously consider it.
If that product or service used to thrive
in an analog world, but can replicated
and improved upon in a digital context,
the momentum will be towards making that shift.
In Kevin Kelly's book "The Inevitable",
he introduces the concept of flowing.
It means that static, analog content
is far less appealing in a world
of rich, dynamic online experiences.
This is the same force that moved newspapers online,
and music to streaming, and maps to apps.
The concept of flowing will only
increase in the years ahead.
Many of these original, non-flowing businesses
that didn't shift are gone or at best,
continue to struggle with old business models.
Industries that are based on the intermediary role
may feel pressure should blockchain technology
become widely accepted and deployed.
Old types of brokerages, from mortgages to notaries,
from insurance to stocks and much more may become obsolete.
Digital business models will dominate
the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
In Daniel Pink's well-received book "A Whole New Mind",
he explores the topic of professions
that may prosper in the future
and those that may be at risk.
The thesis is simple, but important.
It is based on which side of our brain we tap into.
The left side of our brain largely takes care of logic.
Things like process, structure and mathematics.
The right side is where we get our creative abilities.
His argument is that computers and machines
are highly capable of replicating left brain activities
but will struggle with right brain creative
processes for a long time to come.
If humans are to have a meaningful role in the future,
we'll need to focus on right-brained work.
Industries that are human based
and require largely left-brained thinking,
will be dominated and reinvented by
computers, robots and machines.
Here we're not just talking about mass-production factories
where we've seen, for example,
robots build cars and dishwashers.
We're also talking about professions such as lawyers,
accountants and many types of software engineers.
The professions and industries more likely to succeed
will include designers, storytellers
and jobs that require empathy and play.
To add to our vocabulary of understanding
the times in which we are entering,
Daniel Pink calls this "the Conceptual Age."
Now, I want to add a footnote to this item.
Daniel Pink's work slightly predates
the recent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence.
Whereas his thesis is wholly reliant on a world
where computers aren't technically creative,
AI may challenge this notion in the years ahead.
Finally, I'm reminded of a popular, early 21st century meme.
It's an image with two pictures side by side.
One is of a table with a whole lot
of useful gadgets and devices.
The other is simply a smartphone.
And the caption reads "things my smartphone replaced."
Many of those individual industries have been impacted
and while not totally extinct,
many of the dominant players are gone
and only a few niche organizations remain.
It's a powerful reminder of what the scope,
impact and velocity of change ahead
may mean to today's popular industries.