- In many ways, the current state of the global job market
with acknowledged challenges such as poor working conditions
and stagnating wages in some areas has never been better.
How might the Fourth Industrial Revolution impact the future
of work from both a positive and negative perspective?
This is a big topic, and there are many ways to address it.
And we'll look at it from two unique perspectives,
new styles of work and the impact of automation.
Let's begin with styles of work.
While we take it for granted today,
the five-day, 40-hour workweek
is a relatively new concept originating
in the United States in the 1920s.
Through much of the Second Industrial Revolution,
factory workers could regularly put in 16-hour workdays.
Today, in most developed nations,
an eight-hour workday is common.
But it's changing.
The Third and now Fourth Industrial Revolutions
are providing a wide range of new working options.
The Internet has enabled millions of people
to work for themselves and to work at home.
The work is wide-ranging and includes activities
such as marketing, design, software development,
and administrative tasks.
In these instances, working hours and duration
have become the responsibility of the individual.
The five-day, 40-hour workweek
is suddenly much less relevant.
With an increasing emphasis on information workers
in the United States, by around 2005,
30% of the workforce had become contractors,
no longer tied to specific office or factory work hours
and with little allegiance to any particular employer.
In addition the third wave, has given way
to the gig, or shared economy.
Enabled by the prolific availability of smartphones,
Internet connectivity, big data,
and artificial intelligence, these organizations
provide a lightweight platform
for coordinating a wide variety of business models.
These companies are enabling individuals to earn money
in fractional ways and at their own discretion.
When done right, an individual can hypothetically
do one or two jobs for just a few hours a day,
rent a room in their house, rent their car,
and be able to sustain a living.
By 2020, it's estimated that the combined
number of contractors and gig economy participants
in the US will reach 43% of the workforce.
It's only likely to go up from there.
The emergence of gig economy type work
is giving people more freedom and choice.
It is kicked off an ecosystem
of providers that support these new types of businesses
and alternative work lifestyles.
For example, many people now use
service providers to maintain Airbnb properties.
However, this shift is not without challenges.
Many people find it difficult to earn enough
to succeed in the gig economy.
Additional costs for healthcare and types of insurance
and the absence of traditional perks
like pension plans and paid vacations
needs to be factored into an individuals calculations.
In addition, the lack of union representation,
and the unpredictable nature of the work demand
provides further risk.
Now, let's look at the future of work
through the lens of the impact of automation,
specifically robots and artificial intelligence, or AI.
So far, AI has been augmenting our personal and work lives
for some time, creating useful efficiencies.
Examples include search engines like Google
and recommendations for movies and Netflix.
At work, AI augments our work in domains
such as financial services and healthcare.
In industrial settings, AI coupled with robotics
has reduced the need, for example,
for humans to be exposed to unsafe conditions.
Most of the time, AI and robots
have reduced or removed difficult
but routine tasks for us and enabled humans
to do higher-value work and less strenuous work.
But what happens when AI and robotics
transition from simply augmenting our work
to eliminating the need for us to do the work?
History suggests that automation did not steal our jobs.
Through three previous industrial revolutions,
demand for human workers has skyrocketed.
Would a Fourth Industrial Revolution be any different?
There are many who will argue both sides of this.
Some say jobs for humans will continue
to grow and may even be more meaningful.
Although they will evolve in nature and scope
and then there are those who say
that we're entering a period of mass unemployment.
The latter argument is based on the defining characteristics
of the Fourth Industrial Revolution,
scope, impact, and velocity.
Applied against AI and robotics,
innovation suggests consequences
we've never had to face before.
Let's briefly look at one example.
What might the future hold for Americans who drive trucks
for a living as autonomous vehicles enter service?
The trucking industry is a strong candidate for disruption.
Based just on the overhead cost
of drivers' salaries, and the limited hours
a person can drive in a day,
the case of self-driving trucks is very compelling.
There are almost nine million Americans
who will have the possibility
of losing their jobs as a direct result.
Assuming autonomous trucks emerge as anticipated.
But the number will be much higher.
There are many more millions of people
who provide auxiliary services
to the trucking industry that will be impacted.
The diners, mechanics, motels,
laundry services, emergency services, and more.
Have we seen this kind of disruption
at this scale before?
Now, let's multiply this by many more
industries that will be displaced
or will fold as a consequence of the convergence
of the Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies.
It's difficult for us to comprehend
all the consequences.
We'll need to look to the future of work
with our eyes wide open.