- Understanding the major changes taking place
in the world requires us to step back
and take a look at macro factors
that can have significant influence.
We'll explore what I believe are two
of the most important areas:
economic and demographic shifts.
Let's begin with economics.
In the early 1800s, around 94% of the population
lived in extreme poverty.
By 2015, 200 years later, that number had dropped to 9%,
and this, despite the world's population growing sevenfold,
leaping around from one billion
to almost eight billion today.
During the 20th century, despite two catastrophic
world wars, many economies flourished
and created remarkable new innovation.
The century began with most homes lacking electricity,
and ended with a computer powerful enough
to beat a human at chess.
Intuitively we already know that economic circumstances
dictate which societies will thrive
and those that will struggle.
In particular, the last few decades of the 20th century
have seen remarkable prosperity.
In China, from 1978 until 2013,
the economy increased by around 9.5% a year,
and became the second largest in the world.
During that period, per capita GDP in China
went from below $300
to over $6,000 today.
All things being equal, China may pass the United States
and become the largest economy in the world by 2029.
Many parts of southeast Asia have begun to flourish,
from South Korea to Vietnam and Malaysia.
A similar economic miracle is taking place in India.
According to the World Bank,
in just the period from 2008 to 2011,
140 million Indians were lifted out of absolute poverty.
There's still a way to go, but the trends for India
look favorable over the next few decades.
In the opening decades of the 21st century,
economic prospects are increasingly global.
The fastest growing economies in the world
include places such as Rwanda, Tanzania,
Ethiopia and Mozambique in Africa,
and Uzbekistan, Bhutan, and Myanmar.
As prosperity spreads and populations grow,
bigger markets are created,
more opportunities are presented
for improved education,
new industries and expanded innovation.
Invariably, the pervasiveness of the internet
will eventually permeate every corner of the planet.
Onboarding around three billion more internet users
will not only change the nature of the internet,
but create a global hive mind,
a global consciousness, so to speak,
the shares knowledge, thoughts and resources
with vast potential for positive change,
and, of course, with plenty of risks and threats.
Let's now turn to demographics.
When the first industrial revolution began
in the late 1700s, the population of the planet
was estimated to have been around 650 million.
In just over 200 years, we have now reached
around 7.5 billion.
Remarkably, despite this rapid and massive growth,
quality of life has significantly improved.
In the late 1700s, a person born in England
could expect to live to 35 years old on average.
Today the global average is 71.5 years old.
In Japan, it is 85.
These lifespan transformations are due to
a number of factors that include
improved economic circumstances,
and innovation in healthcare.
While the overall global rate is slowing,
populations are growing quickly in some areas
and shrinking in others.
Several countries in Africa and South America
are growing from 1% to 4% annually,
while many countries in eastern Europe,
including Russia, have declining populations.
Populations are also aging at different rates.
Today, in many African countries,
40 to 50% of the population is under 14 years old.
In Japan and several European countries,
including Italy, Germany and Finland,
almost 30% of the population is over 60.
These age distribution differences
will have profound long-term consequences
in each of their countries and regions.
As an example, countries with older populations
may rely more heavily on robots to do labor
and assist with care.
In the 21st century, less than 10% of the world
lives in extreme poverty, are unlikely to be affected
by war, famine, and have many more tools
to combat disease.
Despite what appears to be a litany of bad news
betrayed on media, a human born in the 21st century
enters a world more at peace,
and with more economic opportunity than ever before.
They ought to have a good chance of living
beyond 100 years old.
Of course, many challenges are evident,
including the uncertainty of climate change,
and concerns about a retreat of democracy.
While I've only touched briefly on these two topics,
I've provided some evidence to suggest
that we cannot look at the technological transformation
ahead without considering macro factors,
such as the economic and demographic circumstances
in which they might emerge.